Guy Yehiav, a recognized industry thought leader, is the president of SmartSense, IoT solutions for the enterprise.
Across industries—from aviation to cybersecurity—unpredictability can be a powerful defense. Irregular schedules, varied methods and shifting locations disrupt the ability of bad actors to exploit standard operating procedures.
This principle is gaining traction in the retail and logistics sectors, where organized theft and freight crime thrive on predictable patterns and weak oversight. Introducing irregular frequencies, varying patterns and differing locations increases uncertainty for bad actors. Advances in stealthy track-and-trace procedures can also improve deterrence.
Consider how unpredictability is applied in cybersecurity, where patterns and anomalies are the defining elements that distinguish the ordinary from the suspicious.
It’s not just about behavior being different; it’s about being consistent. When a behavior deviates predictably but consistently, it still falls within the norm. A network of 1,000 users may interact with a system in various ways, but as long as those interactions are stable and predictable—even if unique—there’s nothing inherently concerning.
However, when a user’s activity shifts suddenly or unpredictably—when it steps outside the bounds of consistent, average behavior—that’s when alerts should go off. This principle drives cybersecurity anomaly detection systems. Stability signals safety, and true unpredictability triggers concern.
Imagine this scenario in a login system. If you log in consistently from your phone while at home or from the office on specific days, the system recognizes that as your “regular exception.” But, if at 11 p.m. on a Saturday you suddenly attempt to log in from downtown New York City, that’s an anomaly, and security protocols should prompt multiple verifications.
Uncovering Anomalies To Mitigate Freight Theft
Understanding “normal” versus “anomalous” behavior should be extended into the fight against freight theft and organized retail crime (ORC), which thrive on gaps in oversight. By being unpredictable, businesses can create smarter, more proactive solutions to detect, deter and respond to increasingly sophisticated criminal activities.
Retailers need to consider, for example, the routes and geolocations within their supply chain networks. Much like city navigation, supply chains should account for planned detours, such as those due to roadwork, weather or traffic alerts. These are acceptable anomalies—the system “knows” or “expects” them based on traffic application feedback in real time.
Now let’s add in the unexpected. If a delivery route suddenly deviates to an unplanned location—a suspicious “pit stop” known to be associated with ORC activities—that anomaly should trigger an alert.
How? One way to do this is to leverage real-time location services on cargo pallets, cases or packages, but the key is not just tracking movement but understanding when something abnormal is occurring.
Overcoming Criminal Evasion Tactics
ORC and other bad actors are becoming smarter. They use detection tools—sometimes specialized devices akin to Geiger counters—to scan for active GPS signals. To combat this, retailers must deploy solutions that embrace unpredictability as a feature, not a flaw.
Sensing capabilities and tracking systems should also be designed with the capability to operate in stealth mode. Keeping a signal silent and undetectable while cargo is stationary and activating only when movement occurs serves two purposes:
1. It extends battery life and conserves power, ensuring devices remain operational for longer durations.
2. It reduces detectable signals, making the devices less vulnerable to bad actors attempting to engage in freight theft.
Building Partnerships For Deterrence
When aggregated, these solutions can provide businesses with accurate, time-stamped data to pass on to law enforcement agencies like the FBI. Real-time anomaly detection and irrefutable evidence form the backbone of successful raids, arrests and prosecutions against ORC networks.
The next frontier in combating freight theft involves collaboration between technology providers, specialized ORC deterrence companies and local police and the FBI. These organizations focus on tracking known offenders and building actionable intelligence to target criminal operations.
Deterrence specialists aggregate data on known actors—individuals or networks—and their patterns of behavior. By combining this intelligence with route tracking, businesses can triangulate threats, identify anomalies and trigger interventions in real time.
Detection, intervention and deterrence all play integral roles in combatting freight theft and other ORC strategies. Retailers must send a strong, unwavering message: Theft will not be tolerated.
Through the integration of unpredictability, real-time visibility, stealth capabilities and partnerships with deterrence experts, retailers have a path forward to not only mitigate the financial impact of ORC but to dismantle its operational foundations.
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