How Will DELL Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, May 29, 2025. For event-driven traders, understanding how the company’s stock has historically reacted to earnings announcements can be a valuable tool. Separately, see What Sparked UNH Stock Crash?

Looking at the past five years, Dell Technologies has seen a negative one-day return following its earnings announcements in 53% of instances. The median decline on these days was -4.9%, with the largest single-day drop being -17.9%.

While actual results compared to consensus estimates will heavily influence the stock’s movement, historical patterns can offer insights. Traders might consider two main strategies:

• Pre-earnings positioning: You could use historical odds to inform your trading decisions before the earnings release.
• Post-earnings positioning: Alternatively, you could analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are public to guide your trading strategy.

Analysts’ consensus estimates for Dell Technologies’ upcoming report are earnings of $1.69 per share on sales of $23.2 billion. This would mark an improvement over the year-ago quarter, when the company reported earnings of $1.27 per share on sales of $22.2 billion.

From a fundamental perspective, Dell Technologies currently holds an $80 billion market capitalization. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $96 billion in revenue. It was also operationally profitable, with $6.2 billion in operating profits and $4.6 billion in net income.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

DELL Stock Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 6.1%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.9%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

DELL Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation of DELL Stock With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Dell Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Dell Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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