6 Reasons NOAA Matters As Hurricane Season Approaches

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is less than a month away. Early projections suggest another active season. That’s not the news many of us want to hear after a 2024 season that featured Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. As discussions swirl around the size, scope and funding of the federal weather enterprise, here is a look at 6 vital functions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during hurricane season.

We Know They Are Coming

Can you imagine living in coastal community or city without any significant lead time that a hurricane like Harvey, Maria, or Helene is looming? Imagine not having any idea how large Hurricane Ian was at it approached the coast of Florida. That’s essentially the scenario Galveston, Texas faced in 1900. A hurricane ravaged the region, and it is still considered the nation’s deadliest natural disaster. Thankfully, NOAA, in partnership with NASA and private industry, provides a fleet of weather satellites that provide a constant watch over ocean basins that spawn hurricanes. We take for granted that we generally do not go, “Gee, I didn’t know there was a hurricane out there.”

We Know Where They Are Going

NOAA weather models, along with others, are critical for determining track, intensity, and potential hazards associated with hurricanes. NOAA runs a suite of models ranging from global to hurricane scale. NOAA’s website pointed out, “Forecast models vary tremendously in structure and complexity. They can be simple enough to run in a few seconds on an ordinary computer, or complex enough to require a number of hours on a supercomputer.” While too jargony for this format, the models can be dynamical, statistical, hybrid, trajectory, or ensemble. Here’s the bottom line. We generally have a pretty good idea where storms are going because of them and that allows for planning, evacuations, and emergency response.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are the best in the business. I was classmates with some of them at Florida State University. They use model output, experience, and observational data to issue their official forecasts. The graphic above clearly indicates that track forecasting has steadily improved over the past several decades. A three-day track forecast in 2024 had almost the same error that a one-day forecast had in 1990.

Writing for Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters noted, “During the highly active 2o24 Atlantic hurricane season, the NHC made record-accurate track forecasts at every time interval (12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 60-, 72-, 96-, and 120-hour forecasts), according to the preliminary 2024 NHC Forecast Verification Report released on Feb. 24.” He went on to point out that, “…. Since 2007 on improved hurricane forecasts could have led to over $10 billion in combined benefits just for the two major hurricanes that hit in 2024, Helene and Milton.”

We Have Better Information On What’s Going On Inside Of Hurricane

Improvements in intensity forecasts have lagged behind track predictions. However, progress is being made. Masters referenced a tweet by Andy Hazleton, who is one of the top U.S. hurricane experts. Hazleton, who was recently dismissed from federal service along with other NOAA scientists and staff, was marveling at the 70% detection rate of rapid intensification at 24 hours achieved by NHC forecasters.

Hurricane tracks are largely influenced by meteorological processes at scales that forecast models handle relatively well. Intensification in a hurricane is related to things like ocean heat content, latent heat release from condensation in the eyewall, and other associated processes. NOAA and military Hurricane Hunters fly missions into (and over) the storms to provide vital data on conditions that could affect intensification processes.

Earlier this year, two flight directors were laid off but have since been rehired. Kimberly Cartier wrote in Eos, “A loss of two flight directors constitutes a 25% reduction in NOAA’s capacity…. In addition to NOAA, the Air Force also maintains a fleet of 10 hurricane hunter aircraft, and those have not yet been affected by staff cuts. The data provided by Air Force craft, however, may be of lower quality than those collected by NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters, so the NOAA cutbacks may result in less accurate hurricane forecasts.” These men and women are true patriots that risk their lives for better weather data.

By the way, the satellites that I mentioned earlier also provide important qualitative and quantitative information that help forecasters with intensity processes. For example, satellite information can be used to infer strength when a storm is out of reach of the Hurricane Hunters. NASA, Defense Department and other satellites also provide information on storm structure, sea surface temperatures, and winds.

Research Leads To Improvements That Matter To Us

As a scientist, I understand the value of research. However, I have found that people can be a bit short-sighted when it comes to research and development. They use smartphones, apps, GPS, medication, and other things that improve the quality of life without full appreciating how R&D enabled them. As I often say, things don’t just appear (“poof”) from the R&D fairy.

Most advances in weather forecasting, like medicine or engineering, come from years of sustained observations, verification, field campaigns and scientific expertise. The U.S. has traditionally owned one of the strong research enterprises in the world, and it leads to lives saved, property preservation, and global competitiveness. NOAA’s research office has been a significant part of this process. For example, a research NOAA press release noted, “The newest advancement for hurricane research is the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), a model that brings together ocean and atmospheric observations allowing scientists to see multiple storms at once to understand how they interact.” NOAA estimates this new model has led to 15-20% improvements to storm intensity predictions already. By the way, ff I mentioned every research advancement from NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, it would fill an encyclopedia volume (Did I just date myself?) rather than an article.

Warnings and Risk Communication

Unfortunately, “app culture” is winning. Just recently, I was at lunch and the server complained that her weather app said it wasn’t going to rain. The NWS had a 40% chance of rain and storms in the forecast for our location. The National Hurricane Center provides vital watch, warning, and guidance information. NWS forecast offices also complement those as storms approach their areas of responsibility. Hurricane Helene was a coastal and inland hazard, so many NOAA offices and staff provided public facing information. Andrew Freedman recently reported that 30 NWS offices lack a “meteorologist-in-charge” in the wake of recent retirements. Hurricane-prone cities like Tampa and Houston were among them.

One reason I write these articles is to remind people that cones of uncertainty, hazard maps, storm surge predictions, excessive rainfall outlooks, and tornado warnings come from NOAA not your app. Additionally, NOAA works closely with industry partners, emergency managers, and stakeholders as hurricane threats approach.

While not as external facing, NOAA has also been advancing, in partnership with academia, research to understand how people perceive, understand, and respond weather communication and warning information. The radars, computer models, and satellites are important, but we know that sometimes the information is not being translated due to geographic literacy, perceptions about wording, color or symbols, and even language barriers. There is also significant interest in understanding the intersection of weather hazards and economic impact.

Education and Preparedness

Even before hurricane season, NHC and NWS staff are typically engaging with communities, stakeholders, policymakers, and emergency managers. This hidden service that NOAA colleagues provide is essential for educating the public on risks and preparedness. As the 2025 season begins on June 1st, review your plans if you live in a region that is affected by hurricanes. And as we have seen with recent storms, that doesn’t necessarily mean just coastal communities.

Recently, all living, past NWS directors wrote an “Open Letter” to the public as the peak of severe weather continues and a potentially active hurricane season is only three weeks away. The bipartisan group wrote, “Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that’s a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines—and by the people who depend on their efforts.”

There are far more than six things that I could have highlighted. NOAA provides critical ocean observations. NOAA advances new weather radar systems. NOAA integrates AI into its models. They do it all for us. You don’t think about or question the supply chain, manufacturing, or source of materials when you are enjoying your bed each night, but it was always there. The same thing can be said about NOAA the next time you receive a tornado or hurricane warning. There was a lot that went into it that you didn’t see. It was all important.